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2019-2023年中国储能行业发展预测分析
发布时间:2019-05-28 18:00:47

2019-2023年中国储能行业发展预测分析


2019-2023年中国储能行业影响因素分析


一、有利因素


(一)国家重点支持储能产业的发展


2017NIAN9YUEFABUDE《GUANYUCUJINCHUNENGJISHUYUCHANYEFAZHANDEZHIDAOYIJIAN》TICHU,“SHISANWU”QIJIAN,YAOJIANCHENGYIPIBUTONGJISHULEIXING、BUTONGYINGYONGCHANGJINGDESHIDIANSHIFANXIANGMU;YANFAYIPIZHONGDAGUANJIANJISHUYUHEXINZHUANGBEI,ZHUYAOCHUNENGJISHUDADAOGUOJIXIANJINSHUIPING;CHUBUJIANLICHUNENGJISHUBIAOZHUNTIXI,XINGCHENGYIPIZHONGDIANJISHUGUIFANHEBIAOZHUN;TANSUOYIPIKETUIGUANGDESHANGYEMOSHI;PEIYUYIPIYOUJINGZHENGLIDESHICHANGZHUTI。CHUNENGCHANYEFAZHANJINRUSHANGYEHUACHUQI,CHUNENGDUIYUNENGYUANTIXIZHUANXINGDEGUANJIANZUOYONGCHUBUXIANXIAN。


YAOJIEHEDIANLITIZHIGAIGE,YANJIUTUIDONGCHUNENGCANYUDIANLISHICHANGJIAOYIHUODEHELIBUCHANGDEZHENGCEHEJIANLIYUDIANLISHICHANGHUAYUNYINGFUWUXIANGPEITAODECHUNENGFUWUBUCHANGJIZHI。TUIDONGCHUNENGCANYUDIANLIFUZHUFUWUBUCHANGJIZHISHIDIANGONGZUO,JIANLIXIANGPEITAODECHUNENGRONGLIANGDIANFEIJIZHI。JIANLIJIANQUANBUCHANGJIANGUANJIZHI,YANCHENGWEIGUIXINGWEI。


TONGSHIYAOYINDAOSHEHUITOUZI,YANJIUJIANLICHENGXUJIANHUA、CUJINTOUZIDECHUNENGTOUZIGUANLIJIZHI,YINDAOSHEHUIZIBENJIAKUAIXIANJINCHUNENGJISHUDETUIGUANGYINGYONG。GULITONGGUOJINRONGCHUANGXINJIANGDICHUNENGFAZHANZHUNRUMENJIANHEFENGXIAN,ZHICHICAIYONGDUOZHONGRONGZIFANGSHI,YINDAOGENGDUODESHEHUIZIBENTOUXIANGCHUNENGCHANYE。


(二)国内储能市场前景广阔


MUQIANWOCHUNENGXINGYEDECHUYUGANGGANGQIBU,CHUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMOZENGZHANGXUNSU。MUQIANZUIJUKAIFAQIANLIDEZHUYAOSHIFENGGUANGDIANCHANG、SHANGYEHUAXUEFENGTIANGUDIANLIXIANGMU、CHUANTONGDIANCHANGHEWEIDIANWANGXIANGMUDENGXIAYOUSHICHANG,ZAIGUOJIADALIZHICHIXINNENGYUANFAZHANDETONGSHI,QIFENGQIGUANGDEXIANXIANGYANZHONG,ERDAXINGCHUNENGSHIJIEJUEQIFENG、QIGUANGWENTI,SHIXIANKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDAGUIMOFAZHANDEZHONGYAOZHICHENGJISHU,YINCI,XIAYOUXUQIUDEBAOFASHIZENGZHANG,GUONEICHUNENGSHICHANGQIANJINGGUANGKUO,SHIDECHUNENGDESHANGYEHUAYINGYONGYEYUJIAPOQIE。


(三)行业标准确立促进储能产业发展


SUIZHECHUNENGXIANGGUANJISHUDEFAZHAN,YUELAIYUEDUODEXINGYEBIAOZHUNBEIQUELI,DADADICUJINLECHUNENGXINGYEDEFAZHAN。LIRU,ZHONGGUODIANLIKEXUEYANJIUYUANQIANTOUBIANZHIDEGUOJIABIAOZHUNGB/T33589-2017《WEIDIANWANGJIERUDIANLIXITONGJISHUGUIDING》、GB/T33593-2017《FENBUSHIDIANYUANBINGWANGJISHUYAOQIU》、GB/T33599-2017《GUANGFUFADIANZHANBINGWANGYUNXINGKONGZHIGUIFAN》HUOPIFABU,YU2017NIAN12YUE1RIZHENGSHISHISHI。SANXIANGGUOJIABIAOZHUNDEFABUSHISHI,JIANGWEIGUIFANGUANGFUFADIANZHANDEBINGWANGYUNXINGKONGZHITIGONGYOUXIAOYIJU,WEIGUONEIWEIDIANWANGHEFENBUSHIDIANYUANCHANYEDEJISHUFAZHANTIGONGYIDINGYINDAO。


(四)新能源汽车的快速推广应用带动了储能行业的发展


边锋游戏《GUOJIA“SHISANWU”GUIHUAGANGYAO(CAOAN)》TICHU,“SHISANWU”QUANGUOXINNENGYUANDIANDONGQICHELEIJICHANXIAOLIANGDADAO500WANLIANG。ZAIDONGLIDIANCHIGONGBUYINGQIUDEJUMIANXIA,BIYADI、LISHEN、ZHONGHANGLIDIAN、GUOXUANGAOKE、WOTEMADENGGUONEIZHUYAODONGLIDIANCHIQIYEFENFENFABULETOUZIKUOCHANJIHUA。CIWAI,YIMENGSHIKEJI、SHUANGDENG、NANDOUDIANYUANWEIDAIBIAODEQIANXUDIANCHIQIYEYEZAIDALITOUZIJIANSHEDONGLILILIZIDIANCHISHENGCHANJIDI。ERGONGXINBUFABU《QICHEDONGLIDIANCHIXINGYEGUIFANTIAOJIAN(2017NIAN)》(ZHENGQIUYIJIANGAO),JIANGLILIZIDONGLIDIANCHIDANTIQIYENIANCHANNENGCONGCIQIAN《QICHEDONGLIXUDIANCHIXINGYEGUIFANTIAOJIAN》ZHONGGUIDINGDE“BUDIYU2YIWASHI”DIAOZHENGWEI“BUDIYU80YIWASHI”。YINCI,KEYUJIWEILAILIDIANCHIQIYEHAIJIANGYINGLAIXINYILUNDETOUZIKUOCHANRECHAO,CHUNENGXINGYEJIANGNENGDEDAOKUAISUDEFAZHAN。


二、不利因素


(一)储能商业化模式尚未形成


MUQIANCHUNENGCHENGBENGAO、JINGJIXINGCHA,HAIYINWEICHUNENGDIANZHANYINGLIXINGBUMINGXIAN,RONGZIYEBIJIAONAN,SHANGYEMOSHISHICHUNENGCHANYEFAZHANDEYIDATONGDIAN。DANJISHIMUQIANCHUNENGCHANYEZHENGCESHANGWEIQINGXI,SHANGYEHUAMOSHISHANGWEIXINGCHENG,CHUNENGCHANYEDEFAZHANQIANJINGSHIKEYIYUJIANDE。MUQIANJISHUSHUIPINGGAODECHUNENGQIYEBUJINSHIZUOWEITOUZIFANGTOUZIJIANSHECHUNENGDIANZHAN,TONGSHIHAIFUZEDIANZHANDEZHENGTIYUNYING,TAMENKEYITONGGUOZUOSHIFAN,JILEIYUNXINGSHUJUHEJINGYAN,MOSUOCHUZISHENDESHANGYEMOSHILAIWEIRIHOUSHIXIANGUIMOHUAFAZHANDAXIAJICHU。


(二)电力市场开放程度还有待提高


边锋游戏WOGUODIANLISHICHANGKAIFANGCHENGDUHAIBUGOUGAO,CHUNENGDEJIAZHISHOUYIWUFATIXIAN,CHUNENGDEMAIDANJIZHISHANGWEIXINGCHENG,YANZHONGZUAILECHUNENGCHANYEDEFAZHAN,MUQIANCHUNENGSHANGWEIRONGRUDIANLITIXI,HENDUOCHUNENGXIANGMUSHIYIKAOFENGGUJIACHALAIZHUANQIAN。CHUNENGDECHENGBENHUISHOUXUYAO7-8NIANDESHIJIAN,TOUZIHUIBAOZHOUQIGUOZHANG。


2019-2023年中国储能累计装机规模预测


JIEZHI2016NIANDI,WOGUOCHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI24.3GW,TONGBIZENGZHANG4.7%;JIEZHI2017NIANDI,CHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI28.9GW,TONGBIZENGZHANG19%;JIEZHI2018NIANDI,CHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI31.2GW,TONGBIZENGZHANG8%。


WOMENYUJI,2019NIANWOGUOCHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOJIANGDADAO34.6GW,WEILAIWUNIAN(2019-2023)NIANJUNFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUEWEI10.88%,2023NIANJIANGDADAO52.3GW。

  

边锋游戏ZHONGTOUGUWENDUI2019-2023NIANZHONGGUOCHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOYUCE

边锋游戏SHUJULAIYUAN:ZHONGTOUCHANYEYANJIUYUAN

  

2019-2023年中国电化学储能累计装机规模预测


边锋游戏JIEZHI2016NIANDI,WOGUODIANHUAXUECHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI243MW,TONGBIZENGZHANG72%;JIEZHI2017NIANDI,DIANHUAXUECHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI389.8MW,TONGBIZENGZHANG45%;JIEZHI2018NIANDI,DIANHUAXUECHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMODADAO1.01GW,TONGBIZENGZHANG159%。


边锋游戏WOMENYUJI,2019NIANWOGUODIANHUAXUECHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOJIANGDADAO1.37GW,WEILAIWUNIAN(2019-2023)NIANJUNFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUEWEI25.30%,2023NIANJIANGDADAO3.38GW。


边锋游戏ZHONGTOUGUWENDUI2019-2023NIANZHONGGUODIANHUAXUECHUNENGLEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOYUCE

SHUJULAIYUAN:ZHONGTOUCHANYEYANJIUYUAN


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