边锋游戏

竞争如何推动电动汽车电池市场创新
发布时间:2019-06-05 16:49:09

竞争如何推动电动汽车电池市场创新


DIANDONGQICHE(EV)SHIQUANQIULUOSHIHUANBAOZHENGCEDEJIAODIAN。YUELAIYUEDUODEQICHEZHIZAOSHANGRENSHIDAOWEILAIBUZAISHINEIRANJI(ICE)SHENGTAIXITONGDETIANXIA。YINCI,TAMENZHENGZAIDIAOZHENGSHANGYEMOSHI,WEIJIANGLAIZUOZHUNBEI。


边锋游戏LILIZIDIANCHIJISHUSHIQICHECHUANGXINDEHEXIN,BINGYIJINGQUDELEJUDAJINZHAN。ZAICI,WOMENJIANYAOJIESHAOBUFENCHENGGUOYIJIWEILAIDEFAZHANFANGXIANG。


NCM 811指日可待


DIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGZHENGZAIDAJUTOURUYANFA,TIGAOLILIZIDIANCHIDENENGLIANGMIDU。JINGUANJINZHANHUANMAN,DANLILIZIDIANCHITONGGUOLIYONGGAONENGLIANGYUANCAILIAOHEGAIJINDANTIDIANCHIDAXIAO,TIGAOLEDIANDONGQICHEDEXUHANGLICHENG。ZHIZAOSHANGYIZHIZAINULITIGAOZHENGJICAILIAOZHONGDENIEZHANBI。DUOSHUDINGJIDIANCHICHANGSHANGYIXUANBUJIHUAZAI2019-2020NIANSHIXIANNCM811DESHANGYEHUA/DAGUIMOSHENGCHAN。NCM811HANYOU80%DENIE、10%DEGUHE10%DEMENG,SHIYONGSHOUMINGGENGZHANG,DIANDONGQICHECHONGYICIDIANNENGPAOGENGYUAN。


固态电池紧随其后


边锋游戏DIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGYIZHIJIANGGUTAIDIANCHIJISHUZUOWEIXIAYIDAIJISHU,BINGZHANSHILEDUOGECHUANGXINCHANPIN。CONGLILUNSHANGJIANG,GUTAIDIANCHIYONGJUHEWUHUOTAOCICAILIAOZHICHENGDEGUTIDIANJIEZHITIDAILELILIZIDIANCHIZHONGDEYETIDIANJIEZHI,KEJIANGDIWULIZHUANGJIYINQIDEDIANJIEZHIBAOLUHUOBAOZHAFENGXIAN。GUTIDIANJIEZHIZAIGAOWENHEGAORONGLIANGXIABIAOXIANCHUSE,KEJINYIBUTIGAONENGLIANGMIDU。QICHEZHIZAOSHANGZHENGZAIJIJIYANFAGUTAIDIANCHI。DAOMUQIANWEIZHI,FENGTIANZAIGUTAIDIANCHIZHUANLISHENQINGSHULIANGFANGMIANPAIMINGDIYI。QUNIAN,DAZHONGQICHEXUANBUJIANGXIANGGUTAIDIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGQuantumScapeTOUZI1YIMEIYUAN,ZAI2025NIANQIANDAGUIMOSHENGCHANGUTAIDIANCHI。


边锋游戏TU1:DIANCHINENGLIANGMIDUHEDIANDONGQICHEXUHANGLICHENGDOUZAITISHENG


电池价格下调


DIANCHIHEDIANCHIZUJIAGEXIADIAOYETUIDONGLEDIANDONGQICHEDEPUJI。2018NIANDI,DIANDONGQICHEDIANCHIHEDIANCHIZUDEJIAGEGUJIFENBIEWEIMEIQIANWASHI140-150MEIYUANHEMEIQIANWASHI170-180MEIYUAN。SUIZHENENGLIANGMIDUTIGAO,DIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGSHIXIANGUIMOJINGJI,MEIQIANWASHIJIAGEJIANGJIXUXIAJIANG。WOMENYUJI,2025NIANDIANDONGQICHEDIANCHIHEDIANCHIZUJIAGEJIANGFENBIEJIANGZHIMEIQIANWASHI80MEIYUANHEMEIQIANWASHI100MEIYUANYIXIA,JIMEINIANCHENGBENXIAJIANG10%ZUOYOU。MUQIAN,DIANCHIZUZHANDIANDONGQICHEZHIZAOCHENGBENDE30-40%,DAN2025NIANHOUDIANDONGQICHEJIANGBITONGDENGNEIRANJI(ICE)QICHEBIANYI。SUIZHEYUELAIYUEDUODEGUOJIAZHUBUTAOTAINEIRANJIQICHE,QICHEZHIZAOSHANGFENFENBUJUDIANDONGQICHE,DIANCHIJIAGEXIADIAOJIANGSHISHICHANGDUIDIANDONGQICHEDEXUQIUCHENGBAOZHASHIZENGZHANG。ZUIZHONG,ZHEIJIANGXINGCHENGYIGELIANGXINGXUNHUAN。


市场规模实现飞跃


YANJIUXIANSHI,2025NIAN,DIANDONGJIAOCHEJIANGCHAOGUO1100WANLIANG(BAOKUOCHUNDIANDONGQICHE(BEV)HECHADIANSHIHUNHEDONGLIQICHE(PHEV)),BINGQIEXINJIAZHILIANGEGEHUANJIEDOUCUNZAIHENDUOJIHUI。2025NIANZHIHOU,DIANDONGQICHEDESHOUJIAYOUWANGYUCHUANTONGNEIRANJIQICHECHIPING,SHENZHIGENGDI,WEIQICHEZHIZAOSHANGHEDIANCHICHANGSHANGDAILAILEXINDESHANGJI。BUJINDIANDONGQICHESHICHANGZAIZENGZHANG,DIANDONGQICHEDEXIAOSHOUJIAQUANPINGJUNDIANCHIRONGLIANGYEZAIZENGJIA。YINCI,WOMENYUJIDIANDONGJIAOCHE(BEV / PHEV)DIANCHIZUSHICHANGJIANGZAI2025NIANCHAOGUO600JIWASHI,BINGDAILAIJIN600YIMEIYUANDESHOURU。


产能扩张


边锋游戏CATL、SONGXIA、LGHUAXUE、SANXINGSDIHESK InnovationDENGLINGXIANDIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGZHENGZAIZHENGQIANGQUANQIUQICHEZHIZAOSHANGDEDINGDAN,YOULIDICUJINLEBICIDEFAZHAN。WOMENRENWEIDIANCHIGONGYINGSHANGPAIDUIQIANGDINGDANMEIYOUYIYI,YINWEIZHANGQIDINGDANZAIXIAOLIANGHEJIAGEFANGMIANTONGCHANGDOUHENLINGHUO,BINGQUJUEYUSHICHANGQINGKUANG。


XIANGFAN,DIANCHIZHIZAOSHANGYOUBIYAOLEJIEZHENGGEXINGYEDEKUOZHANGJIHUA,YIZHUIZONGWEILAIDEGONGXUBIANHUA。ZIQUANQIUDIANDONGQICHEXIAOLIANGDAFUZENGJIAYILAI,CHANNENGYIZHIZAIJISUKUOZHANG。2018NIANDI,LEIJICHANNENGDADAOLE129JIWASHI。WOMENYUJI,SHOULINGXIANCHANGSHANGKUOZHANGDETUIDONG,DIANDONGQICHEDELEIJIDIANCHICHANNENGZAI2025NIANJIANGZENGZHIJIN775JIWASHI。


2025年之前竞争格局不会发生重大变化


与其他技术产品不同,电池是定制组件。从产品开发阶段开始,电池就要针对每辆电动汽车进行精确优化,以获得最佳的电源和安全管理。由于电动汽车电池业务需要在产品开发方面具有长期竞争力以及大规模生产经验,因此该行业进入门槛很高。这就是为什么我们预计现有领先企业将继续引领市场,短期内竞争格局不会发生重大变化。


DANSHINEIXIEYUANYIJIANGDIANCHIJISHUHESHENGCHANZHANGWOZAIZIJISHOUZHONGDEQICHEZHIZAOSHANGNI?ZAICHUQIJIEDUAN,WOMENRENWEITAMENJIANGBUDEBUYUDUOJIADIANCHIGONGYINGSHANGJINXINGZHANGQIHEZUO。ZHANGQIHETONGKEBANGZHUQICHEZHIZAOSHANGZAISHICHANGXUQIUBIAOSHENGSHIJIEJUEGONGYINGPINGJING,BINGHUODEGENGYOUHUIJIAGEDECHENGNUO。ZAICHUXIANJINJIQINGKUANGSHI,QICHEZHIZAOSHANGHAINENGLINGHUOYINGDUI,BINGGULIGONGYINGSHANGHUXIANGJINGZHENGYIHUODEGENGHAODEJIAGE。


同时,他们将通过收购获取专有技术和研发或与电池供应商开展独家合作,尝试内部生产电动汽车电池。2025年之后,当市场焦点从目前的锂离子电池转向固态电池时,整个行业都会发生变化。


边锋游戏TU2:QUANQIUDIANDONGQICHEDIANCHIGONGYINGSHANGHEQICHEZHIZAOSHANG

稿件来源: Counterpoint
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