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权威解读:中国碳中和目标下储能的关键支撑作用
发布时间:2020-12-17 10:48:33
关键词:储能

2020NIANSUIMO,“30·60”TANMUBIAOCHENGWEINENGYUANJIEWUKEZHIYIDEDIYI“RECI”。


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1、请您谈谈储能的发展对于实现碳中和目标的必要性?储能如何支持碳中和目标的实现?


岳芬:同欧、美从碳达峰到碳中和的50-70年过渡期相比,我国碳中和目标隐含的过渡期时长仅为30年,这就意味着更快速的节能减排路径,实现难度更大。当前来看,加速能源结构转型,


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在可再生能源大规模发展的背景下,必然对储能提出更大的需求。储能联盟整理的各权威机构预测的储能规模如下:


国家发改委能源研究所: 2015年发布的《中国2050高比例可再生能源发展情景暨路径研究》预测,至2050年可再生能源发电比重从“参考情景”的46%上升到“高比例可再生能源情景”的85%以上,风电、太阳能发电成为实现高比例可再生能源情景的支柱性技术。预计2050年,中国的抽水蓄能装机容量达到140GW、化学储能达到160GW。


国际能源署(IEA):2018年预测,到2040年,可再生能源预计将占全球新增产能的一半以上的场景下,可再生能源的强劲扩张对灵活性(电力系统快速适应电力供应和需求变化的能力)的需求将增长约80%。预计到2030、2040年,中国规模化储能电站(除抽水蓄能外)将分别达到25GW、50GW。


中国投资协会联合落基山研究所:2020年发布的《零碳中国·绿色投资:以实现碳中和为目标的投资机遇》报告预测,在碳中和目标下,2050年,中国光伏和风电将占到电力总装机量的70%。相应地,电化学储能将由2016年的189MW增长到510GW,年均增长率达26%。


国际可再生能源机构 (IRENA): 2020年4月在阿联酋阿布扎比正式发布的(Global Renewables Outlook: Energy transformation 2050)报告,预测“转型能源情景”下,73%的装机容量和超过60%的发电量将来自光伏和风电,全球固定式储能(不包括电动汽车)需要从目前的约30GWh增加到2030、2050年的745GWh、9000GWh。


中关村储能产业技术联盟(CNESA):根据CNESA的预测,保守场景下,2021-2025年中国新型储能(除抽水蓄能外)复合增长率将保持在55%左右,2025年,中国市场储能装机规模将达到60GW,新型储能(除抽水蓄能外)市场的累计装机规模将超过20GW;理想场景下,2021-2025年中国新型储能(除抽水蓄能外)的复合增长率将超过65%,2025年,中国市场储能装机规模将达到100GW,新型储能(除抽水蓄能外)市场的累计装机规模将超过30GW。


2、碳中和目标的提出将给储能发展带来哪些新的机遇,十四五产业发展面临着哪些挑战?


俞振华:碳中和目标的提出将加快推动可再生能源的跨越式发展,必将对储能提出更高的要求。为推动能源革命和清洁低碳发展,“十四五”可再生能源装机规模将实现跨越式发展,“可再生能源+储能”已成为能源行业的共识,成为支撑可再生能源稳定规模化发展的关键和当务之急。“十四五”我国可再生能源将全面进入平价上网时代,给予“可再生能源+储能”合理的价格机制,是解决当前可再生能源发展面临的经济性和利用率约束的迫切途径,支撑储能规模化应用政策和配套条件亟需出台。


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3、对当前储能产业发展您有哪些具体的建议?


陈海生:过去十年储能产业发展在技术、应用、商业模式等方面都取得了很大进展,但随着能源行业的快速发展和电力市场化改革进程的推进,储能行业的发展还面临的一些深层次的问题,需要从以下几个方面发力:


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稿件来源: 中关村储能产业技术联盟
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