边锋游戏

二季度进入抢装期,电解液产业链或迎普涨
发布时间:2019-04-01 16:18:00
关键词:动力电池 锂电池

二季度进入抢装期,电解液产业链或迎普涨


BUTIEXINZHENGJIEDU:2019NIANXINNENGYUANCHEBUTIEZHENGCEYILUODI,ZHENGTILAIKAN,TUIPOFUDUHENIANCHUPILUDEWANGCHUANBANJIEJIN。QIZHONGCHUNDIANDONGCHENGYONGCHELICHENGQUJIANYOU5DANGJIANWEI2DANG,250kmYIXIACHEXINGBUTIEGUILING、300-400kmCHEXINGBUTIETUIPOFUDUZUIDA,DA60%;YUNYINGCHELIANGJIYU0.7BEIBUTIE;NENGLIANGMIDUZUIGAOMENJIANYIRANWEI160Wh/kg,TIXIANZHENGCEDUIANQUANXINGDEQIANGDIAOYUZHONGSHI;KECHEBUTIEXISHUYOUNENGLIANGMIDUZHUANWEINENGHAOZHIBIAO,TONGSHINENGLIANGMIDUMENJIANTISHENGZHI125Wh/kg,ZONGTIJISHUMENJIANZHIBIAOBIJIAOWENHE,DABUFENCHEXINGYIJINGKEYIDADAO;ZHUANYONGCHEDANWEICHUDIANLIANGBUTIETONGYIJIANGZHI350YUAN/kWh,TONGSHIBUTIESHANGXIANANZHAOCHEZHONGHUADANG,TIXIANZHENGCEDUIZHONGKADEGULI。



缓冲期的设置为3月26日至6月25日,较原先预期的延长一个月。符合2019年技术指标的车辆在过渡期内按照2018年0.6倍标准给予,仍然好于过渡期后,预计2季度将迎来明显抢装。其中在乘用车领域,我们认为300-400km车型将成抢装主力。根据推广目录统计,2018年这部分车型的占比达到42%,2019年截至目前占比为83%,处于高位。过渡期后,预计400km以下车型均有LFP电池替换NCM电池需求。此外,新能源客车过渡期后仍保留地补,好于预期,预计今年对LFP电池的拉动较大,全年预计LFP电池的出货量及占比均会有明显提升。

 

RANLIAODIANCHIGUODUQINEIANZHAO0.8BEIBIAOZHUNBUTIE,GAOYUDIANDONGCHESHUIPING;GUODUQIHOUBUTIEZHENGCELINGXINGGONGBU,YUJIZAIZHENGCESHANGJIANGCHIXUXIANGSHOUGENGGAODEYOUHUI。LINGWAI2019NIANYOUWANGKAISHISHISHI“SHICHENGQIANLIANG”TUIGUANGJIHUA,CHANYEHUAJINCHENGJIANGJIASU。DANGQIANWOGUOQINGRANLIAODIANCHICHEDEFAZHANCHENGXIANBIJIAOMINGXIANDEQUYUXINGTEZHENG,ZHUYAOYIFOSHAN、DATONG、SUZHOU、ZHANGJIAKOUDENGQINGZIYUANFENGFUHUOZHEXIANGGUANCHANYEJIJUDEDISHIWEIZHU。JISHUFANGMIAN,WOGUOJINNIANLAIYIYOUBUSHAOQIYETONGGUOJISHUHEZUO、GUQUANTOUZIDENGFANGSHIYINJINGUOWAIXIANJINJISHU,JIASUGUOCHANHUAJINCHENG。RUGUOHONGQINGNENGHEDAYANGDIANJIYINJINBALADERANLIAODIANCHIHEXINBUJIANJISHUBINGDACHENGGUQUAN、ZHIZAODENGXIANGMUHEZUO、WEICHAIDONGLITOUZIYUE1.63YIMEIYUANCHIGUBALADE19.9%GUQUANDENG。TONGSHI,SUIZHEGUOWAIJISHUDEBUDUANTUPO,WOMENYEKANDAOLEQINGRANLIAODIANCHIDECHENGBENXIAJIANGLUJING,ZHONGZHENGFAZHIQINGCHENGBENYIKEPIMEIRANYOU(YUEHE1.25MEIYUAN/kg)、DIANCHIXITONGCHENGBEN2015NIANYUE53MEIYUAN/kW,2020NIANYOUWANGXIAJIANGZHI40MEIYUAN/kW。WEILAI,ZAICHANYELIANDEGONGTONGNULIXIA,WOGUOYOUWANGSHIXIANYIDIANDAIMIAN,CONGJUBUXIANGQUANGUOPUKAIDEFAZHANLUJING。

 

电解液边锋游戏产业链最新解读:重要结论:1)六氟磷酸锂涨价趋势确立,预计至2020年在供需偏紧的情况下价格会逐步上行;2)溶剂受环保限产、下游多领域需求增加影响,价格有望出现再次调涨,全年预计维持高位;3)电解液盈利已至底部,原材料的双重涨价有望传导至电解液环节,在补贴退坡背景下,电解液环节的降价空间依然不大,全年厂商盈利水平预计保持稳定。

 

LIUFULINSUANLIDEZHANGJIAZHUYAOCONGYIXIALIANGDIANJINXINGJIESHI:1)XINGYEGONGXUPIANJIN。2018NIANQUANQIU6JIAYIXIANCHANGSHANG,CHUTIANCIWAIJIBENCHUYUMANCHANZHUANGTAI;2019NIAN6JIACHANGSHANGHEJIMINGYICHANNENGYUE4.1WANDUN,KAOLVQUANNIANYOUXIAOCHANNENG,YUJIZAI3.7WANDUN。ERXIANCHANGSHANGFANGMIAN,JIJIAQIYEZAI2019NIANDEMINGYICHANNENGHEJIYUE1.7WANDUN,YOUXIAOCHANNENGYUJIJIANGYOUSUODAZHE。2020NIANLAIKAN,KAOLVDAOLIUFUDEKUOCHANZHOUQIJIAOZHANG、XIAOQIYEKUOCHANYIYUANBUQIANG,YUJIGONGJIDUANXINZENGCHANNENGBUDUO,PINGJUNMINGYICHANNENGZAI6WANDUNZUOYOU。



边锋游戏XUQIUDUAN,KAOLVDAODANWASHIDIANCHIDUIYUDIANJIEYEDEYONGLIANGZAIZHUNIANJIANSHAO,WOMENDUIXUQIUCESUANJINXINGLEXIUZHENG。CONGCESUANJIEGUOKAN,2019-2020NIANQUANQIUDIANJIEYEXUQIULIANGYUJIWEI3.8WANDUN、5.7WANDUN。YINCIGONGXUZAIZHEILIANGNIANDOUSHIPIANJINDE,CONGERDUILIUFUJIAGEXINGCHENGYIDINGZHICHENG。

 

2)XIAOQIYEYINGLIJIANDI,ZHANGJIAYIYUANPOQIE。GENJULEJIE,XIAOQIYEDECHENGBENXIANZAI13-14WANYUAN/DUNZUOYOU,DANGQIANJIAGEXIAXIAOQIYERENGCHUYUKUISUNZHUANGTAI,SHANGBUZHICHENGKAIGONG。YINCIBUGUANCONGYIXIANCHANGSHANG,HAISHICONGXIAOQIYEJIAODUKAOLV,JIAGEDOUYOUSHANGSHENGKONGJIAN。ZHIYUJIAGECHAOGUOCHENGBENXIANHOU,SHIFOUNENGGOUJIXUSHANGSHENG,YISHIQUJUEYUXINGYEGONGXUQINGKUANG,ERSHIQUJUEYUDACHANGSHANGDEKONGJIAYIYUAN。DANZHISHAOZAIDANGQIANKANDAODEGONGXUGEJUXIA,JIAGENENGGOUWEICHIZAI13-14WANYUANDEXIAOQIYECHENGBENXIANSHANG。

 

RONGJIGONGJISHOUHUANBAOXIANCHANYINGXIANG,2JIDUQIJIAGEKANZHANG。2018NIANSHOUDAOHUANBAOXIANCHANJIZIRANZAIHAIYINGXIANG,RONGJIJIAGEYINGLAIDIAOZHANG,ZHANGFUDADAO40%YISHANG。JINRU2019NIANHOU,1JIDUJIAGEHUANBICHUXIAN22%DEXIAHUA,DANGQIANDIANCHIJIDMCJIAGEZAI7500-8000YUAN/DUN。

 

2JIDULAIKAN,XUQIUDUANCHIXUWANGSHENG:1)XINNENGYUANQICHEZAIGUODUQIYINGLAIQIANGZHUANG,HUANBI、TONGBIDOUJIANGYINGLAISHANGZHANG;2)FEIGUANGQIFAJUTANSUANZHI(PC)HECHENGXINCHANNENGTOUFANG,DAIDONGDMCXUQIU。ERCONGGONGJIDUANLAIKAN,BUFENCHANGSHANGSHOUHUANBAOYINGXIANGTINGCHAN,HEJIJIANSHAOCHANNENGYUE9WANDUN,YUQIJINNIANZHENGTIGONGJILIANGHEQUNIANCHIPING,TONGSHIBANSUIZHEXUQIUDEZENGZHANG,JIAGEYOUWANGZAI2JIDUTANZHANG。

 

边锋游戏DIANJIEYE2018NIANSHOUXINGYEJINGZHENGYINGXIANGJIAGEKUAISUXIADIEJIANDI,DANGQIANQIYEYINGLIYOUSUOHUISHENG,DANRENGCHUYUWEILIZHUANGTAI。MUQIAN,XINGYELONGTOUCHANGSHANGMAOLILVZAI26%-28%,JINGLILVYUJIBUDAO10%;XIAOCHANGMAOLILVBUZU20%,LIRUNWEIBO。YINCI,WEILAIRUOLIUFUHERONGJISHUANGSHUANGZHANGJIA,DIANJIEYEJIAGEYOUWANGGENZHANG,SHIDEYINGLIWEICHIZAIWENDINGKEJIESHOUSHUIPING。


稿件来源: 安信电新
相关阅读:
发布
验证码: