边锋游戏

从政策调整看动力电池的未来发展
发布时间:2016-10-14 15:05:00

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  图为广东猛狮新能源科技股份有限公司董事长陈乐伍发表主题演讲

为了帮助企业客观分析2016年动力电池行业运行情况,正确把握行业发展趋势,加大动力及储能电池的开发应用,由中国化学与物理电源行业协会和电池中国网联合主办,双登集团股份有限公司、壹能(北京)网络科技有限公司共同承办的“2016年第五届中国电池市场年会暨2016年第一届动力电池应用国际峰会、2016年第二届中国电池行业智能制造研讨会”于11月14日在北京拉开帷幕。本次年会聚集了来自政府主管部门领导、知名科研机构专家、新能源汽车动力电池产业链上中下游的企业家、投资机构代表以及媒体记者等500多人参会。

  ZAIBENCIHUIYISHANG,GUANGDONGMENGSHIXINNENGYUANKEJIGUFENYOUXIANGONGSIDONGSHIZHANGCHENLEWUXIANSHENGZUOLETIWEI《CONGZHENGCEDIAOZHENGKANDONGLIDIANCHIDEWEILAIFAZHAN》DEZHUANTIBAOGAO,YIXIASHIGENJUSUJIZHENGLIDENEIRONG,WEIJINGBENRENSHENHE,JINGONGCANKAO。

  陈乐伍:感谢主持人,感谢协会跟壹能科技邀请我来做这样一个报告。早上听了行业里面很多专家,从行业政策、从我们车企的角度、从电池厂的角度来看动力锂电池这个产业的发展。我想换一个角度,从投资者的角度或者投资商的角度来看看我们这个产业。

  我的报告有两部分,第一部分,其实不是我的观点,是安信证券新能源产业的研究员邵晶鑫先生做的报告,我拿过来跟大家分享。第二部分,是我的一些观点。

边锋游戏  WOMENXIANZAIDONGLILIDIANCHIDEFAZHANGENWOMENGUOJIAXINNENGYUANQICHECHANYEDEFAZHANJUEDUISHILIBUKAIDE,YINWEIYOULEQICHEWOMENCAIYOUDONGLILIDIANCHIDEXUQIU。SHAOJINGXINDEGUANDIANRENWEI,WOMENXIANZAIDIANDONGQICHEWANCHENGLECONG0DAO1DEGUOCHENG,CONGHAIMEIYOUDAOXIANZAIDEYI,JIBENSHANGNENGGOURANGLAOBAIXINGSUOJIESHOU,GUOJIAFALESANGE“WUNIANJIHUA”DESHIJIANZOUWANZHEIYANGDELICHENG,WANCHENGLE0DAO1。WOYERENTONGTADEGUANDIAN。DONGLIDIANCHIWOMENYECONGMEIYOUDAOXIANZAIGUIMO,GUIMOKENENGSHIQUANSHIJIEZUIDADE。GANGCAIWEIZONGYEDOUJIESHAOLE,DONGLILIMIANYOUDUOSHAOZHONGLEIXING,SHISHENMEYANGZI,GEZIDETEDIANSHISHENMEYANG。

  WOMENZHENGGEGUOJIA,LIDIANCHIXIANGGUANDECHANYELIANYESHIBIJIAOWANSHAN,DAJIAKEYIKANDAOBIJIAOYOUTEDIANDEYIDIANJIUSHI,ZANMENSUIZHE2015NIAN、2016NIANDONGLIDIANCHISHICHANGXUQIUDEBAOFA,WOMENGEZHONGYUANCAILIAO、LINGBUJIANJIAGEQUXIANYESHIZAIMENGZHANG。CANYUDAODONGLIDIANCHIZHIZAODEDOUYOUNAXIEQIYEZAILIMIANNI,YOUYUANLAIXIAOFEILEILILIZIDEDIANCHIQIYE,YOUDONGLILILIZIDIANCHIQIYE,YEYOUQIANSUANDIANCHIQIYE,DAJIADOUZHUANXINGZUOLILIZIDONGLIDIANCHI。ZUIHOUJINRUSHICHANG,YIGESHIDIANCHICHANGYUCHEQIHEZIPACK,HAIYOUDIANCHICHANGZIJIPACK,HAIYOUDULIDISANFANGPACK。

  ZHEISHIWOMEN2016NIANSHANGBANNIANGUONEIDONGLILIDIANCHICHUHUOLIANGDEPAIMING,BIYADIHECATLZHANLEBANBIJIANGSHAN,BIYADIZHUYAOGONGJIZIJIDECHEZIDEXUQIU,2015NIANDIWOMENZHENGGEDONGLIDIANCHIDECHUHUOLIANGDAGAI16.5GWh,XINGYEGEJUZAIGAOSUKUOZHANGZHONGXINGCHENG,LONGTOUQIYEZHANBIBIJIAODA。

  ZHEISHI2016NIANXIANYOUDECHANNENGYIJIDAO2016NIANDIQIAN20MINGDEQIYETAMENLEIJIDECHANNENG,KANQILAIWOMENDAO2016NIANDIDOUHUIYOUCHAOGUO80GwhDECHANNENG,KENENGCHAOGUOWOMENSHICHANGDEXUQIULIANG。

  ZHEISHIGENJUGUOJIADAO2020NIANDE“SHISANWU”XINNENGYUANQICHEGUIHUASUOZUODEYIGEYUCE,DAO2020NIANWOMENDAGAICONGGUOJIADEGUIHUALIMIANKAN,DUIDONGLIDIANCHIDEXUQIUDAGAISHI71.7GWh,2016NIANCAI20.48GWh,ZHEIGESHUZISHIBUSHIGENSHICHANGDESHIJIQINGKUANGXIANGFUNI?KENENGHAIKANZUIHOUJINNIANJIESHUYIHOUCAIZHIDAO。

  ZHEIGESHILINGWAIYIGEYUCE,CONGLINGWAIDEJIAODU,CONGXINNENGYUANQICHEZONGXIAOLIANGLIMIANDESHENTOUBILILAIZUOYIGEYUCE,CONGZHEIGEJIAODULAIKAN,WOMENSUANQILAIKENENGXINNENGYUANQICHEDONGLIDIANCHIDEXUQIULIANGQISHIYEJIUSHIZHONGGUODAO2020NIANYESHI70GWh,RUGUOWOMENXIAOSHOUSHI210WANTAIDIANDONGQICHEDEHUA,QUANSHIJIEYOUYIBANDEXIAOLIANGSHIZAIZHONGGUO,YOU140GWh,DANSHIJIARUDAO2030NIAN,WOMENXINNENGYUANQICHEZAIZHENGGEQICHEXIAOSHOULIMIANZHAN40%DEHUA,WOMENZONGDEXUQIULIANGSHIYOU500GWh,DANSHIDAOLE2030NIAN,SHIBUSHIHAIYONGLIDIANCHINI?ZHEIKEBUHAOSHUO,LIDIANCHILIMIANKENENGHUIYONG,SHIBUSHIMEIBUCHELIMIANHAIYONGNEIMEDUO,SHIBUSHIRANLIAODIANCHIZENGCHENGSHITIDAILIDIANCHINI?ZHEIGEXUYAOSHIJIANZHENGMING。ZHEISHIWOMENXIANZAIGUONEIJIJIADAQIYEZAIGUOWAIZUODEKEHU,XIANZAIKANLAIZHIYOUCATLGONGJIGUOJIPINPAIDECHECHANG,QITASHIGONGJIGUONEI。

  邵晶鑫从上面这些分析得出三个结论,第一,从现有产能扩张情况来看,动力电池供需关系逆转拐点在明年就是2017年到来,结构性产能过剩无法避免。第二,高端产能仍然供不应求,低端产能面临分化淘汰,规模优势加技术优势的企业将会脱颖而出。第三,国内锂电产业链已经成熟,上游材料竞争力突出,有望率先进入全球供应链,诞生全球龙头。

边锋游戏  DONGLIDIANCHIWEILAIDEZHANWANG。DONGLIDIANCHIZUOWEIDIANDONGQICHEHEXINLINGBUJIAN,JIANGUANMENJIANTIGAO,BIAOZHUNHUAJINCHENGJIAKUAI,DUIXINGYESUIRANSHITIAOZHAN,DANSHIZHANGQIYOULIYUQIYEDEJIANKANGFAZHAN,WOMENCONG2015NIAN—2016NIANGUOJIAMIJICHUTAILEHAOJIGEGUIDING,TEBIESHIDONGLIDIANCHIWOMENSUOWEIDERUWEIGUOJIABAIMINGDAN,HAIYOUYIJI10YUEFENCHUTAIDEDONGLIDIANCHIBIAOZHUNGUIGE、BIANMAZHEIYANGDEGUIDING,WOXIANGDUIWOMENZHENGGECHANYEWEILAIDEFAZHANSHIFEICHANGJIJIBINGQIEHUITUIDONGWOMENCHANYEXIANGGENGGAODESHUIPINGQUFAZHAN。ZHEISHI10YUEFENCHUTAIDEDONGLIDIANCHICHANPINGUIGECHICUNHEQICHEYONGDONGLIDIANCHIBIAOZHUNDEZHENGQIUYIJIANGAO,YUANZHUXINGDIANCHI2KUAN、FANGXINGDIANCHI8KUAN,RUANBAODIANCHI8KUAN,DIANCHIMOKUAI16KUAN,DIANCHIBIAOZHUNCHICUN5KUAN,ZHEIGEDUIJIEJUESHIJIWENTIHAISHIYOUBANGZHUDE。WOMENDAO2020NIAN,ZHEISHIGUOJIATICHULAIDEMUBIAO,GEFANGMIANDIANCHIDEZONGHEXINGNENG、CHENGBEN,XINGNENGYAODADATISHENG,CHENGBENYAODADAXIAJIANG,SUOYIBIXUYOUGENGHAODEJISHUGUIHUAHUOZHEBIAOZHUNLAIGUIFANWOMENZHENGGEXINGYEDEFAZHAN。DONGLIDIANCHIDETIJILIYONG,YEYOUBUSHAOQIYEKAISHIWANGZHEIFANGMIANQUYANSHEN。

  JIEXIALAISHIWODEYIXIEGUANCHA,WOMENKANZHEIGETU,《GUOJIADIANDONGQICHECHONGDIANSHESHIFAZHANZHINAN(2015—2020NIAN)》SUOZUODEDIANDONGQICHEDAO2020NIANBAOYOULIANGDEYUCE,ANZHAOZHEIYANGDEYUCELAIJIANG,KENENG2020NIANDEDIANCHIXUQIULIANGJIUSHI73GWh,ZHEISHIGUOJIAJIMEIGESHENGSHIDEZHIBIAO,NIYAOQUWANCHENGDE。

  XIAMIANZHEIGESHIWOMENMENGSHIDEYANJIUYUANZIJIZUODE,GENJUGEGESHENGZIJIDEXINNENGYUANQICHEFAZHANGUIHUADESHULIANGLAIZUOYIGETONGJI,DAO2020NIANZHENGGEZHONGGUODEXINNENGYUANQICHECHANLIANG,RUGUOWOMENANZHAOMEIBUCHE200GONGLIDEXUHANGLICHENG,ANZHAOXIANZAIDIANCHIDEXIAOLV,WOMENAN45KWhMEIBUCHEDELIANGLAIJIANG,WOMENANZHAO2020NIANGEGESHENGGUIHUADEXINNENGYUANQICHEZONGLIANGSHI562TAICHEZI,ZHEIYANGSUANQILAITADEXUQIULIANGSHI253GWh,GANGGANGPPTLIMIANJIANGDE,QIAN20QIYERUGUOTADECHANNENGZAIWEILAI4NIANSHIFAN3BEIDEHUA,GANGHAOCHABUDUOMANZUZHEIGEXUQIU。WODEYUCEKENENGBIYUANLAIZHANGJIANGDEJIANGZONGHAIYAOLEGUANYIDIAN。

  LINGWAI,QISHIWOMENHAIYOUYIGESHIJIESHICHANGHEYIGEDISUDIANDONGCHEDESHICHANG,ZHEIGESHIWOMENHAIMEIYOUSHIFANGDE,WOXIANGXINZHONGGUODEDONGLIDIANCHIWEILAIJINIANKENDINGBUZHICATLYIJIANENGJINRUSHIJIESHICHANG,KENDINGHAIYOUGENGDUOHAODEYOUXIUDEDIANDONGCHEQIYEJINRUSHICHANG。LINGWAISHIDISUCHEDESHICHANG,WOBUZHIDAOGUOJIASHENMESHIHOUHUIZHENZHENGFANGKAI,DANSHIXIANZAIZAIZHIDINGJISHUGUIFANDEZHENGCE,JIARU2018NIANDIZHIQIANDISUCHEJINRUSHICHANG,QUDEHEFASHICHANGDIWEIDEHUA,KENENGHUIYINGLAIHENHUOBAODESHICHANG,YINWEIZHEILIYAOTIDAIDESHI2YIBULIANGLUNCHEDESHICHANG,YAOGENGXIN,YINWEIYAOTIGAORENMENDESHENGHUOZHILIANG,BIXUJITAZHISHAOCHUXINGGONGJUSHANGMIANTISHENG。CONGZHEIGEJIAODULAIKAN,JIARUDAITILVSHI5%,JIUSHI1QIANWANTAI,MEITAI10DU,JIUSHI100GWh,JIUZHEIMEJIANDAN。

  未来会有什么样的趋势呢?我认为总共有几方面的趋势:

边锋游戏  DIYI,WOMENJISHUJINBUHUIRANGMEIDANWEIDIANLIANGCHENGBENHUIDADAXIAJIANG,2020NIANDESHIHOUWOMENYUCE,WOMENMEIWAMAICHUQUDAGAIJIUSHI1YUAN,DIANCHISHOUMINGKEYIDADAO3000CI,YONG10NIAN。

  DIER,WOMENDECHANYEGUIMOHUIGENGJIADA,TONGYIDEJISHUBIAOZHUNHUITUIDONGDIANCHIZONGHECHENGBENDEXIAJIANG,TEBIESHICONGCAILIAOKAISHI。DAJIAKANKANWOMENZUOCAILIAODESUOYOUDESHANGSHIGONGSITAMENDENIANBAOHUOZHESHIDINGQIBAOGAO,PINGJUNDEMAOLILVDOUSHI50%YISHANG,ZHEIGESHIYUANYUANGAOYUWOMENZHENGGEZONGDECHANYEPINGJUNDEMAOLILVDE。WEILAIZHANGQIDEQUSHIKENDINGHUIXIAJIANG,WORENWEIZHISHAOHUIXIAJIANGYIBAN,DAO25%,ZHEIYANGYIWEIZHEXIANZAI2KUAIQIANZUOYOUMEIWDEDIANCHIKEYIJIANGDAO1YUAN。

  DISAN,ZHUNRUMENJIANHUITAIGAO,XINGYEJIZHONGDUHUITIGAO,XINGYEJINGZHENGLIYIDINGHUITISHENG。

  DISI,KENENGSIWUNIANHOUWOMENBUXUYAOBUTIEYENENGGOUPUJIDIANDONGQICHE,YIFANGMIAN,DIANDONGQICHEZONGHEXINGNENG、CHENGBENZAIXIAJIANG,LINGYIFANGMIAN,LAOBAIXINGJIESHOULVJIESHOULE,ZAIYOUYIGE,GUOJIAKEYIYONGXINGZHENGSHOUDUAN,BIRUSHUOWOJINIYIGELUQUANLAIDAITIBUTIE,DACHENGSHILIMIANWULIUCHEYAOJINLAI,QUANBUBUZHUNYONGYOUDEZHINENGYONGDIANDONGDE,BURANBURANGNIJINLAI,BUGUANWULIUCHEDUOGUIHAISHIDEMAI,YINWEINIYOUZHEIGEXUQIU。

边锋游戏  DIWU,JICHUSHESHIDEPUJIHUIRANGDIANDONGCHEDESHIYONGBIANDEFANGBIAN,WOZHEILIJIANGDESHICHONGDIANZHUANG,RUGUOCHONGDIANZHUANGYIJINGMIMIMAMADEHUA,KENENGDAJIAJIUBUYONGZAIGUILVDIANDONGCHEHUIYONGQILAIBUFANGBIANLE。

  DILIU,QICHECHANYEDEJINRONGHUAHUICUJINDIANDONGQICHEDEPUJI。QISHIWOMENRUGUOBADIANDONGQICHEDANGCHENGYIGEJINRONGCHANPINLAIKANDAIDEHUA,NIKENENGYONGJINRONGDESHOUDUANKEYIRANGNIHENBIANYI、HENDIDEDAIJIAJIUNADAODIANDONGQICHE,KENENGHUICONGLINGWAIYIGEJIAODUTUIDONGDIANDONGQICHEDEPUJI。

边锋游戏  DIQI,XINNENGYUANQICHEZAIQUANQIUZHUYAOJINGJITIXINCHETILIANGDEZHANBIJISUTISHENG。

边锋游戏  DIBA,ZHINENGJIASHIJISHUDEYINGYONGJIAKUAILEDIANDONGQICHEDEPUJI。ZHINENGJIASHIQICHEDETEDIANYOUCHONGZUDEGONGYI,ZHEIGEJISHUDETISHENGYINGGAIYEHUIHENDADETUIDONGDIANDONGQICHEDEPUJI。

边锋游戏  DIJIU,QICHEXINGYESHILIHUIZHONGGOU,BUGUANGUONEIHAISHIGUOWAI,XINCHEQIHUIHUODEJINRUDEJIHUI。

  MIANDUIZHEIYANGDEYIZHONGQUSHI,WOMENCAIQUSHENMEYANGDEYINGDUICUOSHINI?MEIGEQIYEDOUYOUMEIGEQIYEZIJIDEFANGSHI,YOUZIJIDEJIEJUEFANGAN,ZHEILIKENENGJIUJIANRENJIANZHI,SUOYIWOJIUBUSHUOLE。XIEXIEDAJIA!


作者: 陈乐伍      稿件来源: 电池中国网
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